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Commercial real estate update |
Barry Sternlicht, chairman and CEO of U.S.-based Starwood Capital noted that no net new debt has been created by banks in real estate. Instead, banks are merely rolling over existing debt and buying debt from other failed banks in transactions where they had some exposure as participants. Banks are not lending; if they say they are lending, it's not true. The capital environment is different, and worse, he added, noting that much of the current investment activity is being powered by government spending and not private money. (The Wharton School of Business)
2009 was the worst year of job losses since the Great Depression. The unemployment rate stood at 10%, but actually might be higher because it doesnt count workers that quit trying to find employment and quit the labor force. In 2009, we lost an average of 691,000 jobs per month. It is anticipated that we will have at least two more years of rent declines. One very big reason is that banks are not taking on any new risks unless they have to.
Last week, Tishman Speyer BlackRock, one of the largest commercial property owners sent their $5.3 billion investment in 11,000 apartments in New York back to their bankers. Both Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village on Manhattans lower east side were solid middle class properties. The key driver was loans made to developers between 2005 and 2007 assumed ever rising rents and low vacancy rates. Speculators acted on rosy projections will drive many properties back to the bank as the better business decision. |
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